Possible scenario
Risk Assets Crack
20% Chance
In this scenario, the Treasury move spills from rates into equities, credit and funding markets. Investors begin focusing less on the yield level itself and more on refinancing risk, mortgage stress and mark-to-market losses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.