Possible scenario
Dip Buyers Stabilize
30% Chance
A competing likely outcome is that the speed of the selloff attracts pension, insurer and overseas reserve demand. Markets treat the 5.6% area as attractive compensation, producing a short-term relief rally in duration-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.6%
- Technology +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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