Possible scenario
Bear Steepening Continues
40% Chance
The most likely path is a further but not disorderly rise in long-end yields as investors demand more term premium for U.S. deficits, inflation risk and heavier global issuance. The move remains concentrated in duration-sensitive assets rather than becoming a full funding crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -2.1%
- Technology -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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