Possible scenario
Vote Proceeds Normally
40% Chance
Israel’s institutions absorb the CIA warning without a collapse in command authority. The High Court, Central Elections Committee, Shin Bet and IDF leadership keep the Oct. 27 vote on track despite protests, reservist friction and coalition accusations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.