Possible scenario
Coalition Fractures Early
20% Chance
The Haredi draft crisis and distrust of Netanyahu’s security management split the governing camp before election day. Rather than a street-level breakdown, the immediate crisis becomes a political realignment inside the Knesset and cabinet.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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