Possible scenario
Narrow Republican Pickup
32% Chance
Republicans successfully frame the AOC transfer as evidence that El-Sayed is too far left for Michigan. The late progressive money boosts Democratic enthusiasm but also gives the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund a clear closing message in the Detroit suburbs and western Michigan.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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