Possible scenario
Threat Contained Politically
45% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the Interior Ministry and Shia political intermediaries persuade Kataib Hezbollah not to act on the threat. Iraq keeps the US handover of Baghdad Airport facilities under state control while avoiding a direct militia confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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