Possible scenario
Limited Flight Disruptions
30% Chance
Kataib Hezbollah and aligned factions apply pressure through warnings, roadblocks or intimidation rather than a full national shutdown. Iraq’s civil aviation authority issues temporary suspensions at selected airports while trying to keep Basra and Erbil open.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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