Possible scenario
Broad Airport Shutdown
15% Chance
Kataib Hezbollah follows through strongly enough that Iraq temporarily shuts several major civilian airports for safety. The shutdown damages confidence in Baghdad’s control after the US withdrawal, though the event remains primarily a domestic security shock unless oil infrastructure is threatened.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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