Possible scenario
Localized Military Incident
18% Chance
A limited North Korean provocation occurs near the maritime border or demilitarized zone, such as artillery fire, drone activity, or a missile landing unusually close to monitored waters. Both sides avoid full escalation, but the probability of miscalculation rises enough to trigger a clearer regional risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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