Possible scenario
Launch Cycle Continues
50% Chance
North Korea continues a calibrated missile-testing campaign after the Hwasong-11Ma and subsequent east-coast launches, using tests to pressure Seoul and Washington without crossing into direct conflict. South Korea, Japan, and the United States issue condemnations and increase surveillance, but markets treat the pattern as familiar regional brinkmanship.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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