Possible scenario
Allied Response Hardens
25% Chance
Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo respond with a more visible military and sanctions package, including expanded trilateral drills and additional designations on North Korean procurement networks. The outcome raises regional risk premiums but remains below the threshold of armed confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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