Possible scenario
Sanctions Thaw Expands
18% Chance
The diesel request may be an opening move in a broader, politically risky sanctions thaw with Moscow. If the Trump administration links energy relief to diplomatic concessions, markets would price lower fuel risk but also a weaker sanctions regime.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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