Possible scenario
Managed Diesel Waiver
42% Chance
The most likely path is a narrow, legally engineered waiver that lets the U.S. receive limited Russian-linked diesel without formally dismantling the sanctions architecture. Treasury and OFAC would frame the arrangement as temporary energy-market stabilization during the refinery-strike squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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