Possible scenario
Backlash Blocks Request
28% Chance
Congressional hawks, Ukraine supporters, and sanctions lawyers could force Treasury to delay or narrow the request. This would keep U.S. diesel supply tight and preserve elevated refining margins while raising political risk around any Russia-linked energy relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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