Possible scenario
Credit Deterioration Deepens
23% Chance
The 15% yield becomes the start of a deeper repricing rather than the end of the selloff. Investors focus on leverage, power commitments, refinancing needs and whether AI demand can support the debt stack built during the 2024-2026 boom.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Finance -0.9%
- Utilities -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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