Possible scenario
Package delayed by law
25% Chance
Legal and indemnity concerns slow the loan even if most EU governments support it politically. Belgium, the European Central Bank and national finance ministries press for tighter safeguards around Russian assets held at Euroclear.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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