Possible scenario
Compromise reduces loan
20% Chance
EU leaders avoid a direct institutional clash by scaling or phasing the €70 billion request. Kyiv still receives a meaningful commitment, but the package is less clean and less immediate than Zelensky's request.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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