Possible scenario
Global South Coalition
25% Chance
Turkey coordinates with Muslim-majority states, African Union members and some Latin American governments to demand limits on veto use in mass-atrocity and humanitarian cases. This produces diplomatic momentum but still falls far short of the legal threshold for changing the UN Charter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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