Possible scenario
Truce Channel Reopens
20% Chance
The UK and U.S. refusal to conduct direct strikes nudges Riyadh back toward mediation through Oman and the UN. A full settlement remains unlikely, but a limited pause could emerge if the Houthis want recognition or port access rather than a wider Gulf war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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