Possible scenario
Houthi Escalation Tests Defenses
25% Chance
The Houthis respond to UK deployment by increasing salvo size or changing attack profiles to overwhelm Saudi defenses. The risk is credible because recent attacks already targeted Yanbu and Riyadh has rejected a truce tied to territorial concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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