Possible scenario
Defensive Containment Holds
45% Chance
British and U.S. air-defense support improves Saudi interception capacity without crossing into direct strikes on Yemen. This is the most likely path because Washington and London are signaling containment while Riyadh still wants to protect energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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