Possible scenario
Israeli Accountability Fight
20% Chance
The controversy shifts mainly into Israeli domestic politics, with opposition parties and victims' families demanding more testimony from Netanyahu's office. The coalition likely survives in the near term, but political pressure on Netanyahu rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.