Possible scenario
Orders Mostly Proceed
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the $35 billion order book is honored through licensed, staged deliveries of H200-class and China-compliant Nvidia GPUs. Washington accepts the existing 25% revenue-sharing framework, while Beijing allows ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent to expand AI clusters using imported accelerators.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.5%
Tickers
- NVDA+5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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