Possible scenario
Higher-for-Longer Repricing
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the high 3-year auction yield reinforces the view that policy rates will stay restrictive. The move remains orderly, but rate-sensitive equities and credit see modest pressure as investors demand more compensation for duration.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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