Possible scenario
Auction Relief Rally
25% Chance
A plausible near-term alternative is that the high 3-year yield attracts buyers who see value after the sharp selloff. Yields pull back, volatility eases, and rate-sensitive equities rebound modestly.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.3%
- Technology +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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