Possible scenario
Denial Mostly Holds
38% Chance
Ukraine and NATO officials provide enough operational detail to show the 50% grounding claim was overstated. Some jets remain in rotation for maintenance, but the fleet is still usable for air defense and limited strike-support missions.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- LMT+0.3%
- RTX+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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