Possible scenario
Cheap-Yield Bid Fades
28% Chance
The auction strength proves partly technical, driven by cheap valuations, month-end positioning, and short covering after the prior selloff. Investors again focus on Japan's heavy debt supply, inflation persistence, and the BOJ's gradual retreat from bond-market support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Utilities -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.