Possible scenario
BOJ Stays Gradual
18% Chance
The Bank of Japan treats the auction as confirmation that markets can handle a slow reduction in bond purchases. Policymakers avoid abrupt intervention while continuing to emphasize data dependence around inflation, wages, and financial stability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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