Disclosure Deal

Rather than pursue a maximal confrontation, Democrats convert the probes into a legislative push on contractor disclosure, political spending, and conflict-of-interest rules. This outcome is less likely in the immediate aftermath of the midterms but could appeal to moderates who want reform without a prolonged Musk-centered fight.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.