Possible scenario
Transparency Side Prevails
20% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that the Court affirms lower-court authority to compel DOGE records. That would strengthen watchdog groups and Senate investigators seeking evidence about USAID, Social Security data access, and agency-cutting decisions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.6%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.