Possible scenario
Bounce Fades Quickly
30% Chance
The rebound proves fragile if investors view it as short covering rather than a change in fundamentals. Recent concerns about AI capex durability, Broadcom-related caution, and Anthropic growth worries keep buyers selective.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- -4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.