Possible scenario
Russian Mobilization Pressure
25% Chance
Russia conducts a limited force movement or mobilization-linked exercise near Kaliningrad, keeping Lithuania and Poland on higher alert. The action remains below the threshold of direct military contact but sustains regional stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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