Possible scenario
Sanctions And Insurance
18% Chance
The formal UKMTO attribution accelerates non-military retaliation through sanctions, ship-insurance exclusions and port-state scrutiny. This creates higher transaction costs for Gulf trade while stopping short of direct kinetic escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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