Possible scenario
Harassment Continues
25% Chance
Iran treats the UKMTO finding as politically irrelevant and continues calibrated attacks designed to impose costs without forcing all-out conflict. This keeps oil-supply risk and Gulf shipping uncertainty elevated over the next several sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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