Possible scenario
Political Paralysis Deepens
28% Chance
The bond selloff and riots harden opposition resistance to the budget package. Investors begin pricing a higher probability of government collapse, delayed fiscal consolidation, and additional negative action from Scope, S&P, or Moody's.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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