Possible scenario
Budget Bypass Holds
38% Chance
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu uses a constitutional bypass to push the €43 billion savings package through without a full parliamentary vote. Markets remain nervous, but the immediate risk of fiscal drift is contained if the government survives no-confidence motions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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