Talarico Narrow Pickup

James Talarico converts his late polling and fundraising edge into a narrow Democratic pickup, helped by suburban erosion for Ken Paxton and continued attention to Paxton's legal history. The result would be a major Texas upset but still plausible given the 51%-49% polling lead and Talarico's airwave advantage.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.