Possible scenario
Paxton Holds Narrowly
36% Chance
Ken Paxton recovers from the October polling deficit and narrowly keeps the seat Republican. Trump's endorsement, partisan polarization, and Texas's GOP baseline help Paxton survive despite Talarico's spending edge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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