Possible scenario
Late Paxton Breakout
15% Chance
The 51%-49% Talarico lead proves to be a temporary high-water mark, and Paxton wins by a more comfortable margin. This would likely require undecided conservative voters to return home, weaker youth turnout for Talarico, or a late national Republican wave.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.4%
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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