Possible scenario
UN Pressure Intensifies
25% Chance
The expulsion dispute feeds into Washington's broader campaign to punish alleged Iranian nuclear violations. The most likely path is more sanctions diplomacy and public confrontation at the UN rather than immediate kinetic escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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