Possible scenario
Iranian Retaliation Broadens
18% Chance
Iran chooses to respond beyond ordinary diplomatic protest, tying the expulsion episode to nuclear monitoring or regional deterrence. This is less likely than diplomatic containment, but the sequencing of visa denials, movement restrictions, expulsions, and nuclear accusations raises the risk of broader retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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