Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment Holds
45% Chance
Washington and Tehran keep the dispute largely within the diplomatic lane, using the Swiss protecting power and UN procedures to avoid a wider rupture. The expulsion of two Iranian diplomats becomes another tit-for-tat episode rather than a trigger for immediate military or energy-market escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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