Possible scenario
Regulatory Review Hardens
30% Chance
The cancellation strengthens the White House case for mandatory pre-release review of frontier models. Policymakers focus on sandbox escapes, cyber misuse, and autonomous robotics, creating a compliance overhang for leading AI labs.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-2.0%
- AMZN-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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