Possible scenario
Prolonged Hormuz Standoff
35% Chance
Trump maintains the rejection of Iran's seven-day reopening offer, while Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz only partially navigable. The most likely near-term path is a tense standoff with U.S. naval escorts, higher insurance rates, and no full-scale bombing before the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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