Possible scenario
Diplomatic Reopening Deal
20% Chance
Despite Trump's rejection of Iran's initial seven-day offer, intermediaries produce a face-saving arrangement that neither side calls a ceasefire. The deal focuses narrowly on tanker passage, detainee channels, and a pause in new strikes rather than a full political settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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