Possible scenario
Congress Forces Pause
25% Chance
The Senate's recent move to limit Iran war powers becomes the main constraint on the White House. Republican midterm anxiety and Democratic opposition combine to slow or narrow military operations, even if Trump resists publicly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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