Possible scenario
Managed Budget Compromise
45% Chance
EU leaders converge on a negotiated settlement that trims the proposed €2 trillion framework without accepting the deepest cuts demanded by the austerity bloc. Germany, France and the Commission likely trade limited spending reductions for stronger budget controls and delayed funding increases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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