Possible scenario
Austerity Bloc Prevails
15% Chance
The six countries demanding large reductions gain the upper hand, forcing deeper cuts than Germany initially rejected. This outcome would signal tighter EU fiscal policy and a smaller multi-year impulse for public investment, grants and administrative spending.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.1%
- Industrials -1.1%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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