Possible scenario
Visa Policy Tightens
18% Chance
The dispute becomes a catalyst for broader restrictions on technology-sector visa sponsorship and green-card processing. This would be the market-relevant outcome because it affects hiring flexibility across software, cloud, AI, and IT services firms rather than only Microsoft.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Business Services -0.8%
Tickers
- MSFT-2.8%
- -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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